Collaborative Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Threat Assessment Navy SBIR FY2010.2 Sol No.: Navy SBIR FY2010.2 Topic No.: N102-154 Topic Title: Collaborative Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Threat Assessment Proposal No.: N102-154-0801 Firm: Daniel H. Wagner, Associates, Incorporated 559 West Uwchlan Avenue Suite 140 Exton, Pennsylvania 19341-3013 Contact: C. Butler Phone: (757) 727-7700 Web Site: www.wagner.com Abstract: In this project, Wagner Associates, with George Mason University and DDL OMNI as subcontractors, will develop the ASW Threat Prioritization System (ATPS). This system will: I. Prioritize targets based on threat potential, combining  Direct Classification Evidence (e.g. feature measurement clues) and  Indirect Classification Evidence (e.g. tactical events and relationship clues). II. Reduce the time to make threat contact engagement decisions. In order to achieve Goal I, we will combine the classification/identification capabilities of Wagner's Bayesian Inference Engine with the inter-entity reasoning capabilities of GMU's Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Ontologies. This Level 2/3 Data Fusion functionality will be built on top of the existing Level 1 Fusion algorithms (agent-based simulation, Bayesian statistical, and non-Gaussian optimization) currently implemented in the Undersea Warfare Decision Support System (USW-DSS) Data Fusion Engine (DFEN) and Mission Optimization Configuration Item (MOCI). Achieving Goal II requires extracting the knowledge within ATPS and presenting it to the operator in a way that improves his performance. It is critical that the operator be able to "see" into the ATPS reasoning. The criteria used by the system for promoting contacts to a "threat warning" level will require careful development to avoid a system with excessive false alarms. Benefits: In Phase II we will develop a full-scale prototype ATPS that will allow us to demonstrate how powerful Level 2 and Level 3 Data Fusion techniques, designed to maximize military effectiveness, can significantly reduce the vulnerability of United States assets. The improved Situational Awareness (SA) and Threat Awareness (TA) provided by ATPS is particularly necessary at a time when the United States is facing a sophisticated threat in difficult littoral environments, such as China, Korea, and the Middle East, with reduced resources. More effective detection (or avoidance) of threat submarines will produce more effective operations, conducted at lower risk, resulting in fewer casualties to friendly forces and improved overall United States Navy and Joint Forces effectiveness. Return