Prediction of the Full-Scale Cook-off Response Based on Small-Scale Testing Navy STTR FY2010.A Sol No.: Navy STTR FY2010.A Topic No.: N10A-T011 Topic Title: Prediction of the Full-Scale Cook-off Response Based on Small-Scale Testing Proposal No.: N10A-011-0636 Firm: Safety Management Services, Inc. 1847 West 9000 South, Suite 205 West Jordan, Utah 84088 Contact: A. Butcher Phone: (801) 567-0456 Web Site: www.sms-ink.com Abstract: The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for predicting reaction violence of full-scale munitions in either a fast or slow cook-off scenario. This methodology will use a combination of existing heat transfer models and thermal stimulus simulation tools coupled with an empirical model to be developed from data collected from various lab and subscale experimental hardware. Hardware may include but will not be limited to the NAWC Controlled Heat Flux Device, the US DOT Koenen test and the NAWC small scale cook-off bomb. The methodology will be based on a hierarchical approach to validation/uncertainty quantification (V/UQ) to achieve quantified error bounds on the predicted response quantity of interest, the kinetic energy or container fragments and/or the overpressure. The hierarchical approach will also help identify where deficiencies exist that might have a first order impact on the response quantity of interest. Steps can then be taken in Phase II of the project to eliminate these deficiencies through a combination of modeling and experimental quantification. The testing matrix required for the development of the empirical model (including experimental conditions, parametric studies, instrumentation, etc.) will be outlined in this phase of the project and a few scoping tests will be run. However, the majority of the required testing will be conducted in Phase II. Benefits: The benefits of this methodology will be to minimize the uncertainty in the prediction of reaction violence from a fast or slow cook-off scenario involving a full-scale motor. While the use of an empirical model precludes the application of a "first principles" approach to container fragmentation and the resulting reaction violence, this approach takes the existing tools for the thermal stimulus and heat transfer that have been used to predict time to ignition and includes the additional complexity of predicting explosion violence. This methodology, to be demonstrated in Phase II efforts, can then be applied to other missile/munitions systems where subscale and/or full scale is available for developing an appropriate empirical model. Return