Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS) Navy SBIR FY2014.2 Sol No.: Navy SBIR FY2014.2 Topic No.: N142-121 Topic Title: Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS) Proposal No.: N142-121-0326 Firm: Charles River Analytics Inc. 625 Mount Auburn Street Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138-4555 Contact: Joe Gorman Phone: (617) 491-3474 Web Site: www.cra.com Abstract: The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that will produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics proposes a Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We will evaluate and select the data using probabilistic programming (PP) and data fusion and association techniques. Further, we will perform state estimation and prediction in an effort to produce an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process. Benefits: The mature research developed for the COMPASS effort will provide the Navy the ability to use extended-range forecasts in operational planning efforts. We expect the full-scope COMPASS to increase the capabilities of a number of forecasting systems, including those used by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. We seek to enhance the effectiveness of existing forecasting tools, such as the Advanced Climatological Analysis and Forecasting (ACAF) system, by incorporating the innovations developed under COMPASS. Additionally, we envision a number of commercial applications, particularly in industries where weather poses a threat, such as the event-planning, tourism, transportation, construction, and agriculture industries. Return