N092-128 TITLE: Expert System Simulation Capability for Recoverability Modeling

TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Information Systems

ACQUISITION PROGRAM: Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future) Program (MPF (F)), PMS 385, ACAT I

OBJECTIVE: Develop an Expert System (ES) to provide a reasonable approximation of the "fog of war’s" impact on the ability of a ship’s crew to respond to battle damage as part of a recoverability assessment.

DESCRIPTION: Existing recoverability simulations model the crew as a ship system. As a part of the ship, each crewmember is assumed to have informational access to the complete state of the ship, its systems, the progression of damage, etc. It is as though an "omniscient" force is guiding crew members to their appointed tasks, taking into consideration everything from condition of the ship to the proper points to isolate damage; even the goals of other crew members. This does not provide an accurate depiction of a crew’s response to damage, as it yields overly optimistic scenario results. The reason for an "omniscient" crew is largely one of simplicity in implementation. All-knowing agents are simpler to program, straightforward to analyze, and generate repeatable results. Survivability requirements and reduced manning are competing specifications that require compromise and current design tools do not support these required trade-off analysis.

This topic seeks an innovative approach to the development of a more accurate solution to emulate the crew as individuals whose actions may or may not be repeatable, and whose limited access to information often results in an inefficient response to damage. The proposed approach will need to model the movement of information through the chain of command, passing of knowledge from one crewmember to another via various communication systems, and provide for richer simulations in which individual crewmembers have varying levels of experience to solve problems. The approach must provide a more realistic prediction of crew member actions than is currently available, given that they will have an incomplete understanding of the damage extent and locations and will encounter unforeseen obstacles as they move about the ship conducting damage control and system reconfiguration actions. All proposed approaches must employ open architecture principles so that the tool is capable of providing data to or working in coordination with recoverability simulations that emulate the interaction and dependencies of ship’s systems, initial systems configuration(s), structural and equipment damage from weapon effects, fire, flooding, stability, and crew actions over time. Since some loss of information and or key personnel is inherent in this environment, the simulation should ultimately be capable of assisting the damage control system and crew training to maximise crew performance in this degraded communication environment.

Reference 2, is fire investigation report from the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON (CVN 73). This report included examples of the difficulties in communicating critical information to key decision makers in the chain of command and the impact that had on mustering an effective response to the situation. Examples of issues observed in the investigation report that are not currently modeled, but could potentially be addressed by an ES, include:
1. Personnel could not report observations of smoke because the phone line was busy and the report was not made (see Finding of Fact (FOF) 70).
2. Personnel reported observed smoke spread to the chain of command, but the information was not processed or acted upon (see FOF 78).
3. Information passed to damage control and fire fighting personnel via the 1MC (loudspeaker system) could not be understood (see FOF 88).
4. Weaknesses in training and proficiency impact the time it takes for the crew to locate fires and bring them under control (Opinion 10).
5. Personnel may be sent to conduct a task in a location of the ship that is inaccessible (see FOF 120).
6. Personnel responded to tasks outside their assigned areas (FOF 134).

PHASE I: Demonstrate the feasibility of the development of an ES that will provide a reasonable approximation of the "fog of war’s" impact on the ability of a ship’s crew to respond to battle damage. Provide a description of how the proposed ES simulation would work in coordination with or be integrated into one or more recoverability simulations. Establish validation goals and metrics to analyze the feasibility of the proposed solution. Provide a Phase II development approach and schedule that contains discrete milestones for product development.

PHASE II: Finalize the design, as appropriate, and demonstrate a working prototype of the proposed software system based on the results of Phase I. In a controlled laboratory environment, demonstrate and validate the software’s ability to perform as intended. As required, perform additional modeling and simulation as a means of validation.

PHASE III: Upon a successful development and verification and validation (V&V) effort for the proposed simulation approach, support LFT&E and/or survivability design requirements development for a Navy ship acquisition program. Working with Navy and Industry personnel, conduct and document (V&V) needed to support accreditation. V&V efforts should be conducted for the various individual capabilities of the proposed ES simulation and evaluated based on an actual shipboard scenario or realistic test event in order to provide generic V&V artifacts that could be built up to support a variety of specific intended uses.

PRIVATE SECTOR COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL/DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: This technology would have universal applications as a design input for assessing the survivability of merchant ships, cruise ships, passenger ferries, land based sky scrapers, and industrial facilities that are potential targets of terrorists and for developing design requirements to minimize potential casualties from such an attack. The technology could also be used to support emergency response planning to natural or man-made disasters.

REFERENCES:
1. § 2366. Major systems and munitions programs: survivability testing and lethality testing required before full-scale production, http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/10C139.txt

2. USS George Washington fire investigation report, http://www.cpf.navy.mil/foia_rr.shtml

3. IRM, http://www.tnesolutions.com/tne-irm.html

4. MOTISS, http://www.alionscience.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=products.view&productid=45

KEYWORDS: Recoverability; Modeling; Simulation; Expert System; Situational Awareness; Battle Damage

** TOPIC AUTHOR (TPOC) **

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