A Game Theoretic Approach for Threat Prediction and Situation Awareness Navy STTR FY2005 Sol No.: Navy STTR FY2005 Topic No.: N05-T019 Topic Title: A Game Theoretic Approach for Threat Prediction and Situation Awareness Proposal No.: N054-019-0310 Firm: Intelligent Automation, Inc. 15400 Calhoun Drive Suite 400 Rockville, Maryland 20855 Contact: Genshe Chen Phone: (301) 294-5218 Web Site: www.i-a-i.com Abstract: Intelligent Automation, Inc. (IAI), and its sub-contactor, Professor Carl G. Looney from University of Nevada propose a highly innovative approach for Level 2+ information fusion using hybrid data fusion with adversarial Markov game, named a Game Theoretic Approach for Threat Prediction and Situation Awareness. The primary goal is to investigate and demonstrate the effectiveness of Markov game theory and the advanced knowledge infrastructures for Level 2+ information fusion, such as Situation Assessment (Refinement) and Threat Assessment (Refinement) and so on, therefore improve the capabilities of battlefield situation awareness. To achieve this goal, first, a hybrid data fusion approach is proposed to apply in Situation Refinement to perform spatial and temporal processing on tracks produced by Level 1 multi-sensor, multi-target track fusion, supplemented with intelligence information from both structured data sources such as databases and unstructured data sources such as ontology-based documents. Second, ontology-based information representation is proposed for building a Virtual Battlespace with less computational complexity in Level 2 fusion. Third, an adversarial Markov game framework is proposed for Threat Refinement to drive existing and newly formulated models of threat behavior with factlets derived from Situation Refinement to support the determination of possible enemy courses of actions. Benefits: The proposed dynamic threat prediction tool for situation awareness has tremendous applications potential in many military applications. It can also be directly used for developing of advanced mission planning and emergency preparedness decision support systems. IAI is already a contractor on the Future Combat System (FCS) program. We are teamed with Honeywell on the FCS-Platform Soldier Mission Readiness System and with Northrop Grumman on FCS-logistic decision support system. We will leverage these relationships to identify the end FCS customer, and work with these teams to transition our Phase 2 technology into the FCS program. The market for military applications is quite large. Other potential commercial applications include law enforcement, border and coast patrol, intrusion detection, business intelligent, global awareness, decision support and the automated inferenceing tools used for diverse purposes from system failure prediction to marketing. The size of this market is not small and may grow rapidly with the commercial demand in homeland security. We expect the aggregated market size will be similar to that of military applications. Return