TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Information Systems, Battlespace, Human Systems

ACQUISITION PROGRAM: Aegis Modernization Program, DDG 1000, CVN 21, LCS, TSTS

The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals, their country of origin, and what tasks each would accomplish in the statement of work in accordance with section 3.5.b.(7) of the solicitation.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to identify and develop strategies and interface tools for effective portrayals of uncertainty and information reliability.

DESCRIPTION: In military operations and training, adequate understanding of battlespace events can be critical to mission planning and execution success. However, because uncertainty is inherent in all military operations including warfighter competencies, information pertaining to the degree of certainty or reliability in data is necessary to develop accurate situational understanding. Ultimately, inadequate representation of information certainty can lead to sub-optimal or delayed decisions, resulting in loss of momentum or diminished tactical advantage. Strategies and interface tools are needed that provide validated, effective information representations of uncertainty and information reliability as an integral part of the warfighter interface in future combat systems in order to maintain information dominance and facilitate timely, decisive action in combat. Currently, there are few tools and strategies to support the commander in understanding either the reliability of the data or the criticality of missing data. Due to these short-comings, either the warfighter�s situation awareness is degraded, leading to sub-optimal decisions, or the decision process is delayed, resulting in loss of momentum or tactical advantage.
Effective techniques are needed to convey information uncertainty such that it is intuitively grasped by combat decision-makers.

PHASE I: This effort shall provide the design and demonstration of methods, strategies, or tools for portraying information certainty and reliability in the context of combat systems and training operations. Appropriate methods for assessing the benefit of information representations shall be evaluated and documented (e.g., reduced situation awareness errors, faster decision making, increase semantic value of data portrayals, etc.).

PHASE II: This effort shall develop a prototype tool for a comprehensive information uncertainty visualization system for the warfighter, including tools for supporting the warfighter in perceiving, correlating, and evaluating data uncertainty and reliability for combat decision making. The phase II shall include an evaluation of candidate information portrayal strategies, and the development of a standardized coding for battlespace information.

PHASE III: The efforts include transitioning the prototype (strategies, tools, and warfighter interface components) developed for Naval Combat Systems to an additional operational and training domains. This effort would require analysis of the new domains to define elements of operations impacted by uncertainty and identify sources of uncertainty to be addressed.

PRIVATE SECTOR COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL/DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: The methods and strategies developed here for representing data uncertainty and reliability have potential application and commercial value to the finance industry for risk management and effective projections for investment. Information visualizations of uncertainty would also be of benefit to meteorological and oceanographic scientists who utilize multiple data sources with varying capabilities and levels of reliability for mapping of Earth-surface activity. Additional application areas include joint military operations, weather forecasting and homeland defense.

REFERENCES:
1. Banbury, S., Selcon, S., Endsley, M., Gorton, T., & Tatlock, K. (1998). Being certain about uncertainty: How the representation of system reliability affects pilot decision making. Paper presented at the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 42nd Annual Meeting, Santa Monica, CA.

2. Endsley, M. R., Bolte, B., & Jones, D. G. (2003). Designing for situation awareness: An approach to user-centered design. London: Taylor and Francis.

3. Andre, A. D., & Cutler, H. A. (1998). Displaying uncertainty in advanced navigation systems. Paper presented at the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 42nd Annual Meeting, Santa Monica, CA.

4. Tufte, E. R. (1990). Envisioning Information. Cheshire, Connecticut: Graphics Press. Zhang, J., Johnson, K. A., Malin, J., & Smith, J. W. (2002, July 18-19, 2002). Human-centered information visualization. Paper presented at the International Workshop on Dynamic Visualization and Learning, Tubingen, Germany.

KEYWORDS: Information Uncertainty, Situation Awareness, Data Visualization, Decision Making.

** TOPIC AUTHOR (TPOC) **

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