N093-214 TITLE: At-sea Reliability with Predictive Modeling

TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Information Systems, Materials/Processes, Sensors

ACQUISITION PROGRAM: Submarine Combat Systems Program Office (PMS425) ACAT III

The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals, their country of origin, and what tasks each would accomplish in the statement of work in accordance with section 3.5.b.(7) of the solicitation.

OBJECTIVE: The goal is to develop innovative technologies that focus on avoiding performing planned and unplanned maintenance during tactical operational deployments by predicting when maintenance should be performed on a non-interfering basis. These innovative technologies should consider the following as a minimum:
- Scheduled Planned Maintenance
- Real-time Failure Analysis
- Predictive Failure Analysis
- System Monitoring of Software and Devices

DESCRIPTION: In the current shipboard environment, maintenance is performed by a standard or during casualty events. A variety of data is collected by numerous methods to determine the conditional state of the system. However, the process is performed manually and takes a long time to complete each event. Personnel attempt to ascertain whether scheduled or emergency maintenance is required to correct known problems, or predict when problems may occur. However, there is currently no comprehensive onboard solution for predicting when issues may arise. Due to this fact, some amount of maintenance may be done unnecessarily, or in contrast, some activity may not be accomplished that could result in a problem surfacing during some critical activity such as during a weapon launch. Additionally, the manual processes are subject to human error, require crew training, and don�t take advantage of available processing within onboard systems. Finally, there is no linkage to off-board distance support activities. What is needed is a method for forecasting equipment failures utilizing future predicted shipboard problems in critical onboard systems and equipment. This may include utilizing real-time monitoring devices combined with data collection tools and algorithms that can predict equipment failures, or predict when to schedule maintenance. By utilizing sophisticated statistical analysis tools, evidence of statistical anomalies and equipment can be collected that could predict and warn operators of impending equipment failures. Additionally, real-time monitoring by Smart Sensors would also be incorporated into the conditional maintenance concept to measure such things as temperature and vibration for example, which could be collected for analysis by a program that modeled predicted breakdowns based on past data. Additionally capabilities would be incorporated to avoid false positives and to ensure that personnel did not erroneously replace or repair equipment that in reality had no issues.

PHASE I: Research & develop computing models that can be utilized to predict future equipment behaviors. Examine what standard and smart monitors could be installed onboard a submarine platform as well as data collection/analysis systems that could be used to collect equipment data. Document research in a system design document that can be used for Phase II prototype development.

PHASE II: Based on the outcome of the phase I effort design and develop a prototype predictive fault modeling system that will be evaluated in submarine laboratory environments using existing submarine hardware. The prototype should be able to show the condition of the system in realtime. The prototype system should be able to handle precationary as well as emergency maintenance scheduling based on data analysis from system sensors with little or no manual input.

PHASE III: Develop a full scale model meeting all requirements for installation and final testing onboard an operational submarine. Upon completion of testing develop and produce a system for instalation on operational submarines.

PRIVATE SECTOR COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL/DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: This system can be used in various commercial settings such as monitoring of both commercial and military vehicles as well as monitoring nuclear power plant and other critical civilian infrastructures. System could also be used to monitor power grids for possible outages based on past use and predicted human behaviors.

REFERENCES:
1. Modeling Surprise � MIT Technology Review, March/April 2008 (http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=20243&ch=specialsections&sc=emerging08&pg=2)

2. Bayesian Inference � Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_analysis

3. Smart Monitors for reducing equipment costs and monitoring failures - http://www.globalspec.com/reference/8007/SensiNet-Chiller-Plant-Monitoring-System-Reduces-Operating-Costs-and-Predicts-Equipment-Failure

KEYWORDS: submarine, data collection, data analysis, predictive monitoring, Bayesian Statistics, Smart Monitors, Performance Monitoring/Fault Localization (PM/FL)

** TOPIC AUTHOR (TPOC) **

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